Everything You Need to Know About the Texas Drought

Background

How Long Has the Current Drought Been Going On?

The majority of Texas is currently experiencing drought. The whole state was under drought conditions at one time, and it has been for over a year.

State Climatologist John-Nielsen Gammon has warned that Texas could be in the midst of a drought worse than the drought of record. In 2011, the months from March through May, and then June through August all set records for low rainfall. The high temperatures over the summer months increased evaporation, further lowering river and lake levels.

2011 was the driest year ever for Texas, with an average of only 14.8 inches of rain. The only comparable drought occurred during the drought of record during the 1950s, but no single year during that drought was as dry as 2011.

The drought began in October 2010 and continued through 2011. Though conditions had improved in the winter and spring of 2012, by the fall of 2012 dry conditions had returned to much of the state.

As of January 29, 2013, 90 percent of Texas is in some form of drought conditions, and the state’s reservoirs are only 66 percent full. Nearly 7 percent of the state is in “exceptional” drought, the worst stage. Compare that to the peak of the drought, when 88 percent of Texas was in the “exceptional” stage.

What Is Causing the Drought?

The main culprit of the intense 2011 dryness was La Niña, a weather pattern where the surface temperatures are cooler in the Pacific. This in turn creates drier, warmer weather in the southern U.S. (You may also know her counterpart, El Niño, which generally has the opposite effect.) La Niña sticks around for a year, sometimes longer, and tends to return once every few years. (The last La Niña was in 2007, but it was a much lighter one.)

An El Niño weather patten was predicted to bring some relief to the state in the winter of 2012-2013, but it failed to appear. The state climatologist says there’s a 50-50 chance of La Niña returning in the fall of 2013, which would likely make the drought worse than the drought of record in the 1950s.

Maps of the Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor map is released each week. The maps below show how the drought has progressed, beginning in October 2010 to what could arguably be the peak of the drought, the first week of October 2011, and then to the first week of February 2012:

What Are the Effects of the Drought?

The drought has helped fuel wildfires, ruined crops and put a real strain on the state’s electric grid.

Dry conditions fueled a series of wildfires across the state in early September. The most devastating, the Bastrop Complex Fire in Bastrop County, scorched over 34,000 acres and destroyed more than 1,300 homes.

The situation reached a new level of urgency in late January of the following year when wells in the town of Spicewood Beach, Texas officially ran out of water. Some 1,100 residents now depend on tanker trucks to deliver water to the town’s storage tank. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) owns the water system and is overseeing the emergency water operation. The agency anticipates that they could need to truck in water for six to eight months as they look for a long-term solution.

The drought has affected a wide-range of industries in Texas. Economists estimate that the drought has cost farmers and ranchers upwards of $7.6 billion. Some farmers and ranchers have rented or leased parts of their properties to recreational hunters in an attempt to make up some of their lost profits. The price of hay has increased by 200% since the drought began. Since the price of feeding cattle has skyrocketed, ranchers are culling their herds, selling off large numbers of cattle in auctions to out-of-state buyers. Farmers are in similarly dire straits. Corn outputs fell by 40% in 2011 and peanut production is down as well. The lack of crops has created conditions forsevere dust storms across the western part of the state. Rice farmers may soon feel the strain of dwindling water resources. If combined lake levels fall to 600,000, the LCRA will cut off water supplies to farmers in Matagorda, Wharton and Colorado counties as soon as this January.

Officials from ERCOT are also concerned. Nuclear, coal, and natural gas energy production all require large amounts of fresh water to cool equipment. High energy usage and scorching temperatures caused ERCOT to close one factory overnight during the height of the summer’s heat. Officials worry that another spring and summer with low rainfall could mean the closure of some power plants.

When Will the Drought End?

As far as long term prospects, meteorologists are now forecasting that it will have to get a little worse before it gets better. Since “summer rains are unpredictable,” as state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon mentioned in an earlier interview, it is hard to tell what this year will bring. But if the La Niña weather patten returns in the fall of 2013, it could result in dire conditions. The latest NOAA outlook predicts the drought will “persist or intensify” in Texas in the coming months, and drought-free areas of the state are likely to see drought development.

What to Expect in the Future

With no definitive end to the state’s water woes in sight, Texas lawmakers are looking for ways to alleviate future droughts. The 83rd Texas legislature appears poised to act to fund projects in the State Water Plan.

The drought, the extreme heat and the fires that came with it have made these historic years for Texas. And it will leave a mark that will be felt long after the drought is over: trees will continue to die from stress, roads will continue to break apart, and food prices will continue to fluctuate.

Reprinted by permission of State Impact